How markets actually price conflict, trade tension, and de-escalation, and why relief rallies rarely mirror the initial shock.
A tariff escalation and the de-escalation that follows aren't mirror-image events for markets. Here's the structural reason the two sides tend to land differently.
"Risk-off" gets used as if it describes one market behavior. It actually describes several different retreats, and they don't all look the same.
Oil supply shocks send prices vertical fast. What happens over the following weeks depends on a handful of specific, checkable things.
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