CPI, PCE, wages, and breakevens: what each inflation signal really tells markets versus what headlines assume.
Bad economic news sometimes sends stocks up, not down. The reason isn't that investors like weak data, it's what weak data implies about policy.
Markets watch several distinct inflation signals, and each one answers a different question. Knowing which question is being asked matters as much as the number itself.
Breakeven rates are market-based inflation compensation, not a clean inflation forecast. Understanding the difference changes how much weight to put on them.
"Risk-off" gets used as if it describes one market behavior. It actually describes several different retreats, and they don't all look the same.
Bonds rallying when stocks fall feels like a market law. It's actually a regime, one that has flipped sign more than once across market history.
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