Reading the yield curve and rate markets beyond the simple "inversion means recession" shorthand.
A UK tax-cut announcement in September 2022 triggered a leveraged pension-fund feedback loop that forced the Bank of England into emergency gilt purchases.
The Fed's 1994 hikes drove one of the worst bond selloffs on record, exposing a leveraged county treasury and pressuring Mexico's fragile peso peg.
The 2013 taper tantrum was dominated by Treasury yields and emerging-market currency pressure, while US credit spreads and the VIX moved surprisingly little.
The US lost its top credit rating in 2011 and again in 2025. Yields and stocks reacted in nearly opposite ways, a lesson in why context outweighs headlines.
QE and QT change the amount and duration of assets held by the public and can alter term premia, reserves, and financial conditions even when the policy rate is unchanged.
Markets watch several distinct inflation signals, and each one answers a different question. Knowing which question is being asked matters as much as the number itself.
Breakeven rates are market-based inflation compensation, not a clean inflation forecast. Understanding the difference changes how much weight to put on them.
The Fed sets the short end of the curve directly. Government borrowing, auction demand, and term premium drive long yields through a separate set of forces.
The inverted yield curve has a strong recession track record and a lag time that undercuts most of its popular use. Both facts are true at once, and both matter.
A Fed decision that differs from what markets priced in moves more than rates. Here's how surprises ripple through stocks, bonds, and the dollar.
Two yield curves can steepen by the same amount and mean almost opposite things. The direction of the move, not just the shape, is what matters.
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